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Gas is $4.33 and Chevron is booming: the Iran war's bill at the pump | The Receipts - Dataspheres AI

Gas is $4.33 and Chevron is booming: the Iran war's bill at the pump WTF AMERICA Gas is $4.33 and Chevron is booming: the Iran war's bill at the pump Octob...

Gas is $4.33 and Chevron is booming: the Iran war's bill at the pump WTF AMERICA Gas is $4.33 and Chevron is booming: the Iran war's bill at the pump October 20, 2026 Welcome to WTF America. $4.33 a gallon $4.33 a gallon The national average for regular gas on October 15, a record for autumn and up 39% from $3.13 a year ago. The same week, Chevron's stock hit a high. One cause sits behind both. AAA Oct 15 2026: $4.33; Oct 8: 'Gas prices remain the highest they've ever been for this time of year'; LendingTree (AAA data): $3.13 on Oct 6 2025, +39.4%. Google Trends Oct 20: 'chevron' rank 2, 100K+. Who is Chevron? Who is Chevron? — One of America's two biggest oil companies, with ExxonMobil — It pumps oil in Texas, New Mexico and around the world, and sells gas under the Chevron and Texaco names — Its stock reached $225.67 on October 19, a 52-week high MarketBeat/Benzinga Oct 19: CVX 52-week high $225.67; earlier all-time closing high $222.04 Oct 14 (247 Wall St). Exxon also hit highs. Permian Basin production cited by Benzinga. What changed: the Iran war What changed: the Iran war — February 28: the U.S. and Israel strike Iran, and the war begins — Since then, Iran has attacked tankers in the Strait of Hormuz — A record 11 tankers were attacked in the week ending October 4 — At least nine sailors have been killed since July War began late February (CNBC Oct 9: 'since the war began in late February'; Feb 28 per encyclopedia entries). IMO via CNBC Oct 9: 11 tankers attacked week ending Oct 4, the most since the war began; at least nine sailors died in ship attacks since July. Why the strait matters Why the strait matters — About a fifth of the world's oil normally passes through it, near 20 million barrels a day — In mid-October, about 9.4 million barrels a day got through, roughly 70% of the prewar flow — Less oil reaching the market means a higher price for every barrel, everywhere EIA Today in Energy (Hormuz chokepoint): 19-21% of global petroleum consumption, ~20-21 million b/d. Kpler via CNBC Oct 16: 9.4 million b/d week ended Oct 15, about 70% of prewar average. The oil price behind it The oil price behind it CNN Oct 8: Brent $105; CNBC Oct 16: close $109.86, session high $110 (first since May); Benzinga Oct 19: intraday $110.97, highest since May 5, after renewed U.S.-Israeli threats against Iran. What it did to gas What it did to gas LendingTree (AAA data): $3.13 Oct 6 2025; May 2026 peak $4.48; AAA Oct 15 2026 $4.33. September 2026 monthly average $4.33, 50 cents above the previous September record (AAA Oct 1). Why it matters: diesel Why it matters: diesel — Diesel averaged $6.32 a gallon on October 6, up 72% from $3.68 a year earlier — September was the highest monthly diesel average on record — Diesel runs the trucks, trains and farm equipment that move food and goods LendingTree Oct 7 (AAA + EIA): diesel $6.32 Oct 6 2026 vs $3.68 (+71.7%); September 2026 $6.29, highest on record. What a fill-up costs now What a fill-up costs now — A 15-gallon fill: about $65 at $4.33, against about $47 a year ago — That's about $18 more every fill-up — Highest on October 6: California at $6.38. Lowest: Indiana at $3.72 Arithmetic on AAA averages: 15 x $4.33 = $64.95; 15 x $3.13 = $46.95. State figures: LendingTree Oct 6 (AAA). Who gains: Chevron's profit Who gains: Chevron's profit Chevron Q2 2026 release (Jul 31) and Form 10-Q: earnings $12.1B ($6.11/share) vs $2.5B ($1.45/share) in Q2 2025; upstream $8.2B vs $2.7B. Why oil companies win Why oil companies win — Chevron sells its oil at the world price, which the war pushed up — Its cost to pump a barrel doesn't rise with the war — Its oil doesn't pass through the Strait of Hormuz, so it keeps selling all of it — Its oil-producing business earned $8.2 billion, against $2.7 billion a year earlier Chevron Q2 2026: upstream earnings $8.2B vs $2.7B. Brent is the world benchmark; Chevron's production is in the Americas, Australia, Kazakhstan etc., outside Hormuz. Why pump prices fall slowly Why pump prices fall slowly Stations sell fuel they bought when prices were higher Stations protect their margins, so prices fall slower than they rise Traders price in the fear of new attacks, even when more oil gets through ABC News: analysts attribute persistently high gas prices to lingering disruption, costly transport, traders' doubts, and delayed pass-through; 'When prices are fluctuating, gas stations want to protect their profit margin.' Morningstar's Dominic Pappalardo: 'Aren't we all trying to figure that out?' The other side The other side Oil companies don't set the world price; global supply and fear do High prices pay for more drilling at home, which adds supply later Taxes, refining and station margins are part of every gallon Gas has eased from its May peak of $4.48 Brent is a global benchmark; LendingTree: May 2026 peak $4.48; Chevron curtailed Gulf Coast output for Hurricane Isais (CNN Oct 8). What people can do What people can do — Check a gas app before filling up: